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    Verdict: Invest

    Română
    NYSE · United States

    BHP Group (BHP)

    Metals & Mining

    InvestableAvoid
    Annual evaluation
    $83.29
    Close
    Oct 16, 2026
    +0.47% last session
    Operating margin
    38.8%
    2026-06-30
    PRICE PERFORMANCE

    1.Share price

    $82.90+$26.21 (+46.23%)from period start
    Daily closing prices$104$85$66$47Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26

    Daily closes, adjusted for stock splits. Price return excludes dividends. Hover or tap to explore.

    OUR VERDICT

    2.Our verdict

    We would stay away at this price.

    The analysts’ average target is below this price.

    Assessed at $83.29 · 12-month horizon

    Analyst price targets · 12 months

    Published analyst targets, compared with our dated share price.

    Average target
    $77.92
    Price potential
    -6.4%
    Analysts
    8
    Low–high range
    $61.50$96.00
    Historical SPY reference · 5 years
    +11.1%
    Average target versus SPY hurdle
    -17.6 pp
    Buy threshold below
    $67.68

    Why now

    • The company delivers the operating progress reflected in analyst expectations.

    What would change our view

    • Analyst targets or the reported financial position deteriorate.
    RESEARCH AT PUBLICATION

    3.Investment case at publication

    BHP builds beyond Pilbara with copper and Canadian potash

    Stronger annual results support an expanding mining portfolio, but project spending and rising liabilities keep financial discipline central.

    BHP's established iron ore and copper operations provide a profitable foundation for its copper investments and entry into potash. The central business test is whether that expansion can preserve strong cash generation without stretching financing or weakening returns.

    1. Annual revenue, operating profit and operating cash flow improved against the previous fiscal year.

    2. Oz Minerals, the Vicuña copper joint venture and Jansen give BHP concrete avenues to broaden its mining portfolio.

    3. Cash reserves increased, but debt and other liabilities also rose; the nickel suspension remains a clear reminder of commodity-price risk.

    4.Latest annual results

    BHP's latest annual results, for the fiscal year ending in June, show a stronger mining business than in the previous fiscal year. Revenue increased, and operating profit grew faster than sales. Operating cash flow also improved, giving the company more internally generated cash to support investment.

    These are annual results, not a recent quarterly update. Quarterly income and cash-flow figures are unavailable, so the annual improvement does not establish how performance changed within the year.

    Published financial metrics and reporting periods
    MetricPeriodValue
    Operating margin2026-06-3038.8%
    Profit margin2026-06-3022.2%

    5.The business

    BHP mines and sells iron ore and copper around the world.

    We like BHP's powerful combination of Pilbara iron ore and Escondida copper. These major assets give the business a compelling foundation, while its copper expansion and Canadian potash project open an exciting new chapter. The strongest opportunity is to build a broader mining portfolio around an already profitable core.

    BHP earns revenue by selling the commodities its mines produce. Its petroleum exit made the group more focused on mining, while Jansen is its route into the potash market. The nickel business is on care and maintenance because of low prices.

    6.Growth

    BHP has expanded its copper portfolio through the purchase of Oz Minerals and an ownership stake in the Vicuña copper joint venture. These investments extend its copper interests beyond Escondida. Jansen in Canada adds a different commodity opportunity through project development.

    The annual revenue increase is visible in the consolidated statements, but a commodity-level growth breakdown is unavailable. It cannot be attributed specifically to copper, iron ore, production volumes or selling prices. Jansen's progress should be judged through development milestones rather than assumed contributions to current sales.

    7.Profitability

    Operating expenses increased more slowly than revenue in the latest fiscal year. That left BHP with a stronger operating margin, meaning it retained more operating profit from its sales before financing costs and taxes.

    The reported cost classification needs care. Massive's annual statements place operating costs in other operating expenses and show no separate cost-of-revenue amount. The displayed gross profit therefore does not demonstrate cost-free mining. Operating profit is the more useful measure here.

    The nickel suspension illustrates the limits of the portfolio's profitability. A commodity business can become unattractive when selling prices fall, even within a profitable group.

    8.Earnings

    Profit attributable to common shareholders and diluted earnings per share improved against the previous fiscal year. Their improvement was less pronounced than the rise in operating profit. Interest expense increased, and the income-tax charge also rose.

    Consolidated net income includes profit belonging to other owners of BHP's subsidiaries. The larger deduction for those noncontrolling interests left less of the group profit attributable to BHP's common shareholders. The displayed profit margin uses consolidated net income, not shareholder-attributable profit.

    9.Cash flow

    Operating cash flow strengthened and exceeded spending on property, plant and equipment. That spending also increased, showing that BHP continues to put substantial cash into its physical asset base. The statements do not assign that spending to individual projects.

    Total investing cash outflow declined because other investing outflows were lower. Operating cash covered the total investing outflow and reported dividends, although payments to noncontrolling interests were an additional use of cash.

    The reported increase in cash also included financing movements. Net debt issuance and a positive other-financing entry contributed to funding, so the cash build should not be credited solely to mine operations. The nature of the other-financing entry is not specified.

    10.Balance sheet

    BHP ended the fiscal year with more cash and a stronger excess of current assets over current liabilities than in the previous fiscal year. That improves its near-term financial cushion while it continues investing.

    Borrowings also increased, including both current debt and long-term debt and lease obligations. Other noncurrent liabilities rose as well, but their composition is unavailable. Those liabilities should not all be described as borrowing.

    The expanding property, plant and equipment balance underlines how much capital mining ties up in physical assets. Maintaining financial flexibility matters when commodity prices weaken or development projects require more funding.

    11.Valuation

    The current analyst targets and SPY comparison are shown in Our verdict.

    View the current assessment

    12.What we are watching

    Watch how the Oz Minerals assets and Vicuña investment develop within BHP's copper portfolio. Jansen's development milestones matter separately because entering potash requires execution, not simply a broader commodity mix.

    Financial progress should show up in operating cash generation alongside disciplined project spending. Rising debt and other liabilities deserve attention even as cash reserves improve. The status of the nickel business is another concrete indicator of how BHP responds when commodity economics deteriorate.