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    Verdict: Invest

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    NYSE · United States

    Union Pacific (UNP)

    Mobility & Delivery

    InvestableWait
    $287.01
    Close
    Oct 19, 2026
    -0.7% last session
    Reported revenue
    $6.86 bn
    Q2 2026
    Annual revenue growth
    11.5%
    Q2 2026
    Operating margin
    40.3%
    Q2 2026
    Reported P/E
    23.21×
    2026-10-14
    PRICE PERFORMANCE

    1.Share price

    $286.43+$59.35 (+26.14%)from period start
    One year of daily closes$322$283$244$205Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26

    Daily closes, adjusted for stock splits. Price return excludes dividends. Hover or tap to explore.

    2.Company news

    View all
    OUR VERDICT

    3.Our verdict

    Waiting for a better price

    The published targets do not meet our required upside.

    Assessed at $287.01 · 12-month horizon

    Analyst price targets · 12 months

    Published analyst targets, compared with our dated share price.

    Average target
    $327.63
    Price potential
    +14.2%
    Analysts
    25
    Low–high range
    $245.00$375.00
    Historical SPY reference · 5 years
    +11.1%
    Average target versus SPY hurdle
    3 pp
    Buy threshold below
    $284.58

    Why now

    • The company delivers the operating progress reflected in analyst expectations.

    What would change our view

    • Analyst targets or the reported financial position deteriorate.
    RESEARCH AT PUBLICATION

    4.Investment case at publication

    Union Pacific’s freight network earns more, but keeps less of each revenue dollar

    The western railroad delivered higher revenue and earnings in the June fiscal quarter, while its margin showed why traffic quality and operating discipline still matter.

    Union Pacific’s integrated network provides a strong platform for serving industrial, agricultural and container freight customers. The business generates substantial operating cash after gross equipment purchases, but maintaining that strength requires dependable service, sustained investment and careful financing.

    1. Revenue, operating income and diluted earnings per share rose against the same fiscal quarter of the prior year, but operating margin declined.

    2. Reported-quarter operating cash flow exceeded gross cash purchases of property, plant and equipment, leaving cash for other obligations.

    3. Competition, equipment-supplier dependence and potential rail-rule changes remain material risks despite the network’s strengths.

    5.Latest quarter

    Union Pacific carried more revenue into profit in the fiscal quarter ended June. Reported revenue, operating income and diluted earnings per share increased against the same fiscal quarter of the prior year, according to Massive’s consolidated statements.

    The economic result was less uniform than the earnings growth suggests. Operating margin, meaning the share of revenue left after operating expenses, declined against the same fiscal quarter of the prior year. It improved against the preceding fiscal quarter, so the annual and sequential comparisons tell different stories.

    Published financial metrics and reporting periods
    MetricPeriodValue
    Reported revenueQ2 2026$6.86 bn
    Annual revenue growthQ2 202611.5%
    Reported operating incomeQ2 2026$2.76 bn
    Operating marginQ2 202640.3%
    Profit per share, after dilutionQ2 2026$3.36

    6.The business

    Union Pacific earns money by hauling freight across the western United States.

    We like this business because its tracks connect the goods that keep industry moving: crops, chemicals, vehicles and containers. This is a powerful transport platform, and its strongest opportunity is making that network an even more dependable choice for shippers. Reliable journeys turn a vast collection of rail assets into a service customers can build their operations around.

    Mexico is also an important part of the business. Union Pacific carries cross-border freight and owns a stake in Ferromex. Its earlier annual filing describes the railroad as an integrated operating segment, rather than a collection of separate commodity businesses.

    7.Growth

    Reported-quarter revenue increased against the same fiscal quarter of the prior year. The consolidated statements do not separate that increase into shipment volumes, freight prices, fuel surcharges or traffic mix, so the immediate source of growth remains unresolved.

    The latest annual filing provides useful background, not an explanation of the current quarter. Freight revenue rose in the latest annual fiscal period against the preceding annual fiscal period, supported by core pricing gains and higher volumes. Lower fuel-surcharge revenue and a shift toward lower-revenue freight partly offset those gains.

    Revenue history

    $ bn
    Revenue
    Revenue historyConsolidated reported quarterly revenue; compare the same fiscal quarter across years. Unit: $ bn.$7.3$5.5$3.6$1.8$0Q3 2023 · Revenue: $5.94 bnQ4 2023 · Revenue: $6.16 bnQ1 2024 · Revenue: $6.03 bnQ2 2024 · Revenue: $6.01 bnQ3 2024 · Revenue: $6.09 bnQ4 2024 · Revenue: $6.12 bnQ1 2025 · Revenue: $6.03 bnQ2 2025 · Revenue: $6.15 bnQ3 2025 · Revenue: $6.24 bnQ4 2025 · Revenue: $6.09 bnQ1 2026 · Revenue: $6.22 bnQ2 2026 · Revenue: $6.86 bnQ3 2023Q1 2024Q3 2024Q2 2025Q4 2025Q2 2026Revenue historyConsolidated reported quarterly revenue; compare the same fiscal quarter across years. Unit: $ bn.$7.3$5.5$3.6$1.8$0Q3 2023 · Revenue: $5.94 bnQ4 2023 · Revenue: $6.16 bnQ1 2024 · Revenue: $6.03 bnQ2 2024 · Revenue: $6.01 bnQ3 2024 · Revenue: $6.09 bnQ4 2024 · Revenue: $6.12 bnQ1 2025 · Revenue: $6.03 bnQ2 2025 · Revenue: $6.15 bnQ3 2025 · Revenue: $6.24 bnQ4 2025 · Revenue: $6.09 bnQ1 2026 · Revenue: $6.22 bnQ2 2026 · Revenue: $6.86 bnQ3 2023Q1 2025Q2 2026

    Consolidated reported quarterly revenue; compare the same fiscal quarter across years.

    View chart data
    Revenue history
    PeriodRevenue ($ bn)
    Q3 2023$5.94
    Q4 2023$6.16
    Q1 2024$6.03
    Q2 2024$6.01
    Q3 2024$6.09
    Q4 2024$6.12
    Q1 2025$6.03
    Q2 2025$6.15
    Q3 2025$6.24
    Q4 2025$6.09
    Q1 2026$6.22
    Q2 2026$6.86

    8.Profitability

    Operating profit increased against the same fiscal quarter of the prior year, but operating expenses absorbed more of each revenue dollar. That distinction matters for a railroad whose network and equipment require continuing support even when freight demand changes.

    Service quality is an economic issue as well as an operating issue. The latest annual filing identifies competition from trucks and other railroads on price, transit time and reliability. Strong profitability therefore needs dependable execution, not simply a large footprint.

    Operating margin

    %
    Operating margin
    Operating marginReported consolidated operating income divided by revenue. Missing provider fields remain unavailable. Unit: %.41.640.338.937.636.3Q3 2023 · Operating margin: 36.64 %Q4 2023 · Operating margin: 39.08 %Q1 2024 · Operating margin: 39.33 %Q2 2024 · Operating margin: 39.95 %Q3 2024 · Operating margin: 39.67 %Q4 2024 · Operating margin: 41.25 %Q1 2025 · Operating margin: 39.34 %Q2 2025 · Operating margin: 41.03 %Q3 2025 · Operating margin: 40.82 %Q4 2025 · Operating margin: 39.46 %Q1 2026 · Operating margin: 39.54 %Q2 2026 · Operating margin: 40.25 %Q3 2023Q1 2024Q3 2024Q2 2025Q4 2025Q2 2026Operating marginReported consolidated operating income divided by revenue. Missing provider fields remain unavailable. Unit: %.41.640.338.937.636.3Q3 2023 · Operating margin: 36.64 %Q4 2023 · Operating margin: 39.08 %Q1 2024 · Operating margin: 39.33 %Q2 2024 · Operating margin: 39.95 %Q3 2024 · Operating margin: 39.67 %Q4 2024 · Operating margin: 41.25 %Q1 2025 · Operating margin: 39.34 %Q2 2025 · Operating margin: 41.03 %Q3 2025 · Operating margin: 40.82 %Q4 2025 · Operating margin: 39.46 %Q1 2026 · Operating margin: 39.54 %Q2 2026 · Operating margin: 40.25 %Q3 2023Q1 2025Q2 2026

    Reported consolidated operating income divided by revenue. Missing provider fields remain unavailable.

    View chart data
    Operating margin
    PeriodOperating margin (%)
    Q3 202336.64
    Q4 202339.08
    Q1 202439.33
    Q2 202439.95
    Q3 202439.67
    Q4 202441.25
    Q1 202539.34
    Q2 202541.03
    Q3 202540.82
    Q4 202539.46
    Q1 202639.54
    Q2 202640.25

    9.Earnings

    Reported diluted earnings per share increased against the same fiscal quarter of the prior year. This measure spreads earnings across the diluted weighted-average share count; it is not an adjusted earnings figure.

    The reported quarter also included other non-operating income. That income is separate from the profit earned by running the railroad. The latest annual filing reports share repurchases in that annual fiscal period, but the evidence does not establish their contribution to the current quarter’s earnings-per-share growth.

    Published financial metrics and reporting periods
    MetricPeriodValue
    Other non-operating incomeQ2 2026$0.11 bn
    Reported consolidated net incomeQ2 2026$1.99 bn
    Average shares, including potential dilutionQ2 20260.59 bn shares

    Reported diluted EPS

    $
    Diluted EPS
    Reported diluted EPSThe published provider EPS field. No ADR, currency or adjusted-earnings conversion is inferred. Unit: $.$3.56$2.67$1.78$0.89$0Q3 2023 · Diluted EPS: $2.51Q4 2023 · Diluted EPS: $2.71Q1 2024 · Diluted EPS: $2.69Q2 2024 · Diluted EPS: $2.74Q3 2024 · Diluted EPS: $2.75Q4 2024 · Diluted EPS: $2.91Q1 2025 · Diluted EPS: $2.7Q2 2025 · Diluted EPS: $3.15Q3 2025 · Diluted EPS: $3.01Q4 2025 · Diluted EPS: $3.11Q1 2026 · Diluted EPS: $2.87Q2 2026 · Diluted EPS: $3.36Q3 2023Q1 2024Q3 2024Q2 2025Q4 2025Q2 2026Reported diluted EPSThe published provider EPS field. No ADR, currency or adjusted-earnings conversion is inferred. Unit: $.$3.56$2.67$1.78$0.89$0Q3 2023 · Diluted EPS: $2.51Q4 2023 · Diluted EPS: $2.71Q1 2024 · Diluted EPS: $2.69Q2 2024 · Diluted EPS: $2.74Q3 2024 · Diluted EPS: $2.75Q4 2024 · Diluted EPS: $2.91Q1 2025 · Diluted EPS: $2.7Q2 2025 · Diluted EPS: $3.15Q3 2025 · Diluted EPS: $3.01Q4 2025 · Diluted EPS: $3.11Q1 2026 · Diluted EPS: $2.87Q2 2026 · Diluted EPS: $3.36Q3 2023Q1 2025Q2 2026

    The published provider EPS field. No ADR, currency or adjusted-earnings conversion is inferred.

    View chart data
    Reported diluted EPS
    PeriodDiluted EPS ($)
    Q3 2023$2.51
    Q4 2023$2.71
    Q1 2024$2.69
    Q2 2024$2.74
    Q3 2024$2.75
    Q4 2024$2.91
    Q1 2025$2.7
    Q2 2025$3.15
    Q3 2025$3.01
    Q4 2025$3.11
    Q1 2026$2.87
    Q2 2026$3.36

    10.Cash flow

    For the reported fiscal quarter ended June, operating cash flow increased and gross cash purchases of property, plant and equipment declined against the same fiscal quarter of the prior year. Cash remaining after those gross purchases consequently increased against that same baseline.

    For the trailing twelve months ended at June quarter-end, operating cash flow also exceeded gross cash equipment purchases. This derived cash measure excludes equipment-sale proceeds, intangible investments, leases and noncash commitments. It is not Union Pacific’s issuer-defined free cash flow.

    In the latest annual fiscal period, Union Pacific defined free cash flow as operating cash flow less cash used in investing activities and dividends paid. That broader definition should not be confused with the quarterly or trailing cash-after-gross-purchases measure.

    Published financial metrics and reporting periods
    MetricPeriodValue
    Cash generated by operationsTTM 2026-06-30$10.26 bn
    Cash after investmentsTTM 2026-06-30$6.5 bn
    Cash generated by operationsQ2 2026$3.08 bn
    Building and equipment investmentsQ2 2026$0.87 bn
    Cash after investmentsQ2 2026$2.2 bn

    Cash generated versus cash invested

    $ bn
    Operating cash flowGross cash PPE purchasesOCF less gross PPE purchases
    Cash generated versus cash investedMassive reported quarterly operating cash flow less gross cash PPE purchases, calculated in code. PPE sales, intangible investments, leases and noncash commitments are excluded. This is separate from a broader issuer-defined productive-assets cash measure. Missing fields remain unavailable. Unit: $ bn.$3.26$2.6$1.95$1.3$0.65Q3 2024 · Operating cash flow: $2.65 bnQ4 2024 · Operating cash flow: $2.66 bnQ1 2025 · Operating cash flow: $2.21 bnQ2 2025 · Operating cash flow: $2.33 bnQ3 2025 · Operating cash flow: $2.52 bnQ4 2025 · Operating cash flow: $2.23 bnQ1 2026 · Operating cash flow: $2.44 bnQ2 2026 · Operating cash flow: $3.08 bnQ3 2024 · Gross cash PPE purchases: $0.83 bnQ4 2024 · Gross cash PPE purchases: $0.92 bnQ1 2025 · Gross cash PPE purchases: $0.91 bnQ2 2025 · Gross cash PPE purchases: $0.94 bnQ3 2025 · Gross cash PPE purchases: $0.95 bnQ4 2025 · Gross cash PPE purchases: $1 bnQ1 2026 · Gross cash PPE purchases: $0.94 bnQ2 2026 · Gross cash PPE purchases: $0.87 bnQ3 2024 · OCF less gross PPE purchases: $1.82 bnQ4 2024 · OCF less gross PPE purchases: $1.74 bnQ1 2025 · OCF less gross PPE purchases: $1.3 bnQ2 2025 · OCF less gross PPE purchases: $1.4 bnQ3 2025 · OCF less gross PPE purchases: $1.57 bnQ4 2025 · OCF less gross PPE purchases: $1.23 bnQ1 2026 · OCF less gross PPE purchases: $1.5 bnQ2 2026 · OCF less gross PPE purchases: $2.2 bnQ3 2024Q4 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026Cash generated versus cash investedMassive reported quarterly operating cash flow less gross cash PPE purchases, calculated in code. PPE sales, intangible investments, leases and noncash commitments are excluded. This is separate from a broader issuer-defined productive-assets cash measure. Missing fields remain unavailable. Unit: $ bn.$3.26$2.6$1.95$1.3$0.65Q3 2024 · Operating cash flow: $2.65 bnQ4 2024 · Operating cash flow: $2.66 bnQ1 2025 · Operating cash flow: $2.21 bnQ2 2025 · Operating cash flow: $2.33 bnQ3 2025 · Operating cash flow: $2.52 bnQ4 2025 · Operating cash flow: $2.23 bnQ1 2026 · Operating cash flow: $2.44 bnQ2 2026 · Operating cash flow: $3.08 bnQ3 2024 · Gross cash PPE purchases: $0.83 bnQ4 2024 · Gross cash PPE purchases: $0.92 bnQ1 2025 · Gross cash PPE purchases: $0.91 bnQ2 2025 · Gross cash PPE purchases: $0.94 bnQ3 2025 · Gross cash PPE purchases: $0.95 bnQ4 2025 · Gross cash PPE purchases: $1 bnQ1 2026 · Gross cash PPE purchases: $0.94 bnQ2 2026 · Gross cash PPE purchases: $0.87 bnQ3 2024 · OCF less gross PPE purchases: $1.82 bnQ4 2024 · OCF less gross PPE purchases: $1.74 bnQ1 2025 · OCF less gross PPE purchases: $1.3 bnQ2 2025 · OCF less gross PPE purchases: $1.4 bnQ3 2025 · OCF less gross PPE purchases: $1.57 bnQ4 2025 · OCF less gross PPE purchases: $1.23 bnQ1 2026 · OCF less gross PPE purchases: $1.5 bnQ2 2026 · OCF less gross PPE purchases: $2.2 bnQ3 2024Q3 2025Q2 2026

    Massive reported quarterly operating cash flow less gross cash PPE purchases, calculated in code. PPE sales, intangible investments, leases and noncash commitments are excluded. This is separate from a broader issuer-defined productive-assets cash measure. Missing fields remain unavailable.

    View chart data
    Cash generated versus cash invested
    PeriodOperating cash flow ($ bn)Gross cash PPE purchases ($ bn)OCF less gross PPE purchases ($ bn)
    Q3 2024$2.65$0.83$1.82
    Q4 2024$2.66$0.92$1.74
    Q1 2025$2.21$0.91$1.3
    Q2 2025$2.33$0.94$1.4
    Q3 2025$2.52$0.95$1.57
    Q4 2025$2.23$1$1.23
    Q1 2026$2.44$0.94$1.5
    Q2 2026$3.08$0.87$2.2

    11.Balance sheet

    At June quarter-end, Union Pacific held cash and short-term investments alongside current borrowings and substantial noncurrent debt and capital lease obligations. Its financing needs cannot be judged from cash holdings alone.

    The latest annual filing says the railroad relies on capital markets for part of its capital requirements. It also reports debt repayments, dividends and share repurchases during that annual fiscal period. Those uses of money must coexist with investment needed to operate a safe, efficient railroad.

    Dependence on key locomotive and rail suppliers adds another constraint. The filing explains that sophisticated equipment and maintenance create barriers for new suppliers, which can limit purchasing flexibility.

    Published financial metrics and reporting periods
    MetricPeriodValue
    Cash and readily available funds2026-06-30$1.61 bn
    Short-term investments2026-06-30$0.5 bn
    Short-term debt2026-06-30$1.29 bn
    Long-term debt and leases2026-06-30$29.04 bn

    12.Valuation

    The current analyst targets and SPY comparison are shown in Our verdict.

    View the current assessment

    13.What we are watching

    Watch whether revenue growth comes with better operating margins and dependable service. A clearer split between prices, shipment volumes and traffic mix would help establish the character of that growth.

    Investment and financing deserve equal attention. Lower quarterly gross equipment purchases do not establish a lasting reduction in capital needs. The latest annual filing also identifies Surface Transportation Board reviews involving reciprocal switching and commodity exemptions, making the eventual rules and their operating implications worth following.