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    Verdict: Invest

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    The Daily Thesis

    Billions for AI. Fees for BlackRock.

    AI spending creates more than chip orders. BlackRock earns fees from managing capital and is taking a bigger role in financing data centers.

    S&P 500 · SPY
    $771.79
    Close ·

    The story in numbers

    Session ·
    1. BlackrockBLK+4.38%
    2. MicronMU+1.87%
    3. NVIDIANVDA-1.84%
    4. S&P 500SPY+0.28%

    The business collecting the fees

    The AI boom has a tollbooth: the business financing the buildout. Our preference is BlackRock over a blanket bet on hardware. The October 15 session showed why: more spending on computing infrastructure does not mean every supplier wins.

    BlackRock rose 4.38% while Nvidia fell 1.84%. Financial shares advanced as technology shares declined. Investors rewarded different business models very differently. The AI label alone no longer explains the opportunity.

    BlackRock's third-quarter 2026 revenue grew 19% to $7.75 billion. Its infrastructure-financing role includes Meta's $14 billion data center and the $40 billion Aligned Data Centers deal. The company participates in the construction cycle through managing and financing assets.

    Scarcity picks its own winners

    Chip demand remains strong. ASML delivered strong third-quarter results and raised its full-year outlook. Its orders reach into 2029–2030, with supply constraints expected through 2028. This is an investment cycle measured in years.

    The squeeze works in opposite directions. Limited production gives suppliers more room to raise prices and leaves customers with higher bills. Memory shortages are already pushing up smartphone prices and delaying purchases. What helps one business puts pressure on another.

    Micron gained 1.87% while Nvidia and TSMC fell. Even TSMC's sixth consecutive record profit could not lift its shares. The industry has strong demand, but the stock market is already choosing its winners. Selectivity is visible in the prices.

    Follow the business earning the fees

    BlackRock already earns money across private markets, actively managed funds and systematic strategies. Infrastructure expands a business that is working today. Its appeal comes from that combination: established earnings and a bigger role in financing AI.

    A data center needs financing as well as chips. Managing capital committed to long-lived infrastructure creates opportunities to earn fees. That gives investors a route into the buildout beyond betting on chip shortages or the success of a processor generation.

    Follow who earns from AI spending. In this comparison, we favor BlackRock's established fee business and expanding financing role. Micron also shows where selective chip ownership has a place: limited supply that supports earnings. The business model makes the difference.